Australia Election: Anthony Albanese of the Labor Party has achieved a historic re-election, defying the so-called “incumbency curse” with a sweeping victory to remain Australia’s prime minister.
While official vote counts are still underway, projections indicate a significant expansion of Labor’s majority, following a crushing defeat of the conservative Liberal-National coalition across the country.
Addressing supporters, Albanese stated, “Today, Australians have chosen fairness, opportunity, and strength through compassion—values that define our nation.”
Peter Dutton, leader of the Coalition and a 24-year parliamentary veteran, conceded defeat and took full accountability for his party’s performance, expressing regret to his colleagues. In the wake of the election, global leaders such as UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed eagerness to strengthen ties with Australia.
The campaign, lasting five weeks, was heavily shaped by domestic issues, notably cost-of-living pressures including housing and healthcare affordability. Foreign policy also played a role, with debates surrounding Australia’s stance on former US President Donald Trump influencing voter sentiment.
Dutton, often compared to Trump, struggled to shed associations with hardline stances on immigration, fiscal austerity, and China. These parallels were unpopular among the electorate, despite his efforts to distance himself.
Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull described Dutton’s strategy as “very Trumpian,” suggesting that Trump’s influence served as a backdrop shaping public perception of the Coalition’s platform.
Labor managed a nationwide swing in its favor—an uncommon outcome for a second-term administration. Albanese now becomes the first Australian prime minister to secure consecutive election wins in over two decades.
The result marks a reversal of the 2022 election’s trend, which saw many voters abandoning traditional major parties. Current estimates from the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) suggest Labor will secure 86 seats, the Coalition around 40, with the Greens winning one or two. Nine other seats are leaning towards independents and minor parties.
Labor’s gain of nine seats underscores a drop in support for the Greens, although many independent “teal” candidates retained their seats in conservative inner-city districts.
Albanese’s resurgence comes after months of political and economic turmoil that had previously driven his approval ratings to historic lows. In his victory speech, he reaffirmed his pledges on pressing issues such as affordable general healthcare, home ownership, environmental protection, and climate action.
He also committed to pushing forward national reconciliation efforts with First Nations people, emphasizing the importance of closing socio-economic gaps between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians.
This reference nods to one of Albanese’s most significant challenges—the failed 2023 Voice referendum. This initiative, which sought constitutional recognition and an Indigenous advisory body, was rejected following intense and often polarizing public discourse. Many Indigenous Australians have since voiced concerns of neglect by policymakers.
Albanese’s tenure has also faced scrutiny over his neutral stance on the Israel-Gaza conflict, his controversial beachfront property purchase amid a housing crisis, and the broader economic struggles faced globally.
Despite low polling numbers earlier in the year, Albanese entered the election as an underdog, seemingly vulnerable to the “incumbency curse,” a term capturing the global trend of first-term governments being ousted. Meanwhile, Dutton appeared on the verge of a dramatic political comeback.
It has been nearly 100 years since a first-term Australian government was voted out. However, as Professor John Warhurst of the Australian National University noted, “Dutton entered the campaign ahead—it was his to lose.”
In a dramatic result, Dutton lost his own seat of Dickson to Labor candidate Ali France. Speaking in Brisbane, he acknowledged the loss: “I love this country and have fought hard for it. We will rebuild because we know our values and beliefs.”
Dutton’s campaign suffered from multiple setbacks, including policy inconsistencies, missteps on critical issues like cost-of-living, and a now-infamous incident involving an AFL ball hitting a cameraman.
Professor Warhurst labeled the opposition’s efforts “shambolic.” Analysts noted that Labor’s campaign, though steady and strategic, was cautious, allowing public opinion on Dutton’s leadership to steer the narrative.
This cautiousness was echoed by voters throughout the campaign. As the Coalition reflects on its future leadership, internal divisions over political direction are expected to resurface.
After 2022’s poor showing, some Liberal MPs warned against veering too far right and questioned whether Dutton—a deeply polarizing figure—was the right leader to regain moderate electorates.
The Coalition’s turn toward culture war themes and comparisons to Trump in the campaign’s final days may force a deeper internal reckoning if they wish to become electorally competitive again.
“We must stop deluding ourselves with surface-level fixes. This demands a comprehensive review,” said former Liberal strategist Tony Barry, speaking to ABC.
Labor, on the other hand, must now determine how to use its enhanced mandate. Albanese’s so-called “curse of incumbency” transformed into an asset amid global instability, which may have swayed voters in Australia—similar to trends seen in countries like Canada—to favor continuity.
By adopting a centrist policy approach, Labor secured victory. However, according to Amy Remeikis of the Australia Institute, the time has come for bolder governance: “Labor’s centrist path won them the election. Now the question is—will they use their power for meaningful change?”
